Weather forecasting

Jen has this crackpot theory that it always snows in this neck of the woods on her friend's birthday. The theory might well be ludicrous, but it is at least capable of being falsified (i.e. it is possible to devise a test that could disprove the theory). According to the philosopher Karl Popper (1902-1994), this means that Jen's snow theory counts as a scientific theory. Indeed, it could be argued that it is more scientific than a typical Meteorological Office prediction of a 20% chance of snow (how could you ever test that one?). So Jen's weather forecast is in some ways far more scientific than that of the UK's official weather forecasting organisation, with all its Cray super-computers and satellite images - even though it is clearly complete and utter bollocks.

Today is Jen's friend's birthday.

It's snowing.


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